Exit Poll Disparity: BJP's Underperformance and Dalit Vote's Impact
The Lok Sabha election results have revealed a closer race than predicted by exit polls, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Maharashtra. Analysis by Pradeep Gupta, Chairman of Axis My India exit poll agency, has attributed this discrepancy to the BJP's underperformance in these three states, where Dalit votes played a significant role in favor of the Congress-led INDIA bloc.
BJP's Lower-than-Predicted Performance
In Uttar Pradesh, Axis My India had projected a lower range of 67 seats for the NDA, but the actual tally stands at 38 seats, resulting in a shortfall of 30 seats. Similarly, in West Bengal, the prediction was 26 to 32 seats for the BJP, but they secured only 11 seats, a deviation of 15 seats from the projection. In Maharashtra, the NDA was predicted to win 28 seats, but the actual figure is 20 seats, indicating an 8-seat shortfall.
Dalit Votes: A Decisive Factor
Gupta believes that the Dalit votes, which often go underreported, played a pivotal role in these three states. He attributes this shift to the BJP's focus on religious discourse, such as the Ram Mandir inauguration, which tends to alienate Dalits. Additionally, issues like reservation and allegations of constitutional amendments may have further swayed their votes.
In Maharashtra, the collapse of Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) worked to the advantage of the INDIA bloc.
Exit Poll Accuracy in Other Regions
Despite the discrepancies in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Maharashtra, the Axis My India exit poll proved accurate in terms of seat numbers in several other states, including Rajasthan, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, and the four assembly elections held concurrently.
Gupta acknowledged the challenging nature of conducting exit polls in West Bengal due to the reliability of responses. He also noted that the agency's predictions for the overall seat tally remain valid, suggesting the NDA is likely to form the government. However, the lower actual seat count highlights the need for introspection on the factors that led to the mismatch in the three key states.
