Historical Context and Evolution of Trilateral Diplomacy
The trilateral summits between China, Japan, and South Korea, initiated in 2008, were intended to foster regional cooperation and address shared challenges. However, the meetings have been sporadically held, with the last one occurring in 2019 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions.
Recent Developments and Bilateral Engagements
Sunday, December 18, 2023, marked the arrival of Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Seoul, South Korea, for separate bilateral meetings with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol ahead of the trilateral summit scheduled for Monday, December 19. These bilateral discussions aimed to explore avenues for enhanced cooperation and address outstanding issues.
Agenda and Expectations for the Trilateral Summit
The trilateral summit on Monday is expected to focus on six key areas of cooperation:
1. People-to-people exchanges: Promoting cultural understanding and fostering closer ties between the citizens of the three nations.
2. Climate change: Addressing the shared challenges of climate change and exploring joint initiatives for mitigation and adaptation.
3. Trade: Strengthening economic ties, promoting free trade, and addressing trade barriers.
4. Health issues: Collaborating on healthcare, disease prevention, and pandemic preparedness.
5. Technology: Leveraging technology for innovation, economic growth, and addressing societal challenges.
6. Disaster responses: Enhancing coordination and cooperation in disaster relief and emergency management.
Unofficial Discussions and Regional Dynamics
While these six areas form the official agenda, experts anticipate that sensitive topics, such as North Korea's nuclear program, China's claim over Taiwan, and territorial disputes in the South China Sea, may also be discussed informally. North Korea's nuclear ambitions pose a significant security threat to both South Korea and Japan, and it is likely that the leaders will exchange views on this issue, although the extent to which these discussions will be made public remains uncertain.
Economic Interdependence and Regional Cooperation
China, Japan, and South Korea are significant economic partners for one another, and their combined gross domestic product (GDP) accounts for approximately 25% of the global total. Regional peace and prosperity depend on their cooperation, particularly in addressing shared economic challenges and promoting free trade.
Historical Disputes and Diplomatic Challenges
However, the three nations have faced ongoing historical and diplomatic disputes, largely stemming from Japan's wartime atrocities during the colonial period. South Korea and Japan have experienced a recent thaw in their relations, with President Yoon taking steps to move beyond historical grievances and focus on shared challenges.
North Korea's Provocations and Diplomatic Responses
North Korea's recent nuclear tests and missile launches have heightened tensions in the region, prompting South Korea, Japan, and the US to strengthen their trilateral security partnership. China, as North Korea's primary ally, has been urged to use its influence to encourage North Korea's denuclearization, although its clandestine support for the North remains a concern.
Shared Interests and the Need for Improved Ties
Despite these challenges, South Korea, China, and Japan recognize the importance of improving their relations. South Korea and Japan seek stronger ties with China, their largest trading partner, while China is wary of the potential impact of closer South Korea-Japan-US cooperation on its interests.
Expectations and Significance of the Trilateral Summit
The trilateral summit provides a platform for the leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea to engage in dialogue, explore areas of cooperation, and address regional challenges. While major breakthroughs may not be expected, the resumption of high-level talks signals a positive step towards improving relations and promoting regional stability.
