On Sunday, French voters will make a pivotal decision in the runoff of snap parliamentary elections, a choice that could potentially lead to the formation of the country's first far-right government since the Nazi occupation during World War II or result in a parliament with no clear majority.
Marine Le Pen's National Rally, an anti-immigration, nationalist party, has a chance of securing a legislative majority for the first time. However, the outcome remains uncertain due to France's complex voting system and strategic maneuvers by political parties.
Election Day Details
French voters, both in France and its overseas territories, will cast their ballots for 501 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, the lower and more influential chamber of France's bicameral parliament. The remaining 76 seats were won outright in the first round of voting.
In the first round, the National Rally and its allies emerged with a lead, capturing approximately one-third of the votes. A coalition of center-left, hard-left, and green parties, known as the New Popular Front, followed in second place, significantly ahead of President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance.
In the intense period between the two rounds, over 200 centrist and left-wing candidates withdrew from the race to increase the chances of their moderate rivals and prevent National Rally candidates from winning. Recent polls suggest that this tactic may have diminished the far right's prospects of obtaining an absolute majority.
Despite this, Le Pen's party enjoys wider and more profound support than ever before, and the final outcome rests in the hands of the voters.
Potential Outcomes
Polling projections indicate that the National Rally is likely to emerge with the most seats in the National Assembly, a historic first for the party. If it secures an absolute majority of 289 seats, Macron would be compelled to appoint National Rally President Jordan Bardella as France's new Prime Minister.
Bardella would then form a government, sharing power with Macron in a system known as cohabitation. Should the National Rally fail to secure a majority but still attain a substantial number of seats, Macron could still appoint Bardella. However, the National Rally could decline the offer, fearing that their government could be overthrown by a no-confidence vote.
Alternatively, Macron could seek to forge a coalition with moderate parties and potentially select a center-left Prime Minister. In the event that no party gains a clear mandate to govern, Macron could establish a government of experts unaffiliated with political parties. Such a government would likely focus on managing day-to-day affairs and ensuring the smooth functioning of the country.
However, any of these scenarios would require parliamentary approval. If political negotiations extend beyond the summer recess or the duration of the Olympic Games in Paris (July 26 - August 11), Macron's centrist government could maintain a transitional role pending further decisions.
Cohabitation: How It Works
If the opposition secures a majority, Macron would be obligated to appoint a Prime Minister from that majority. Under this cohabitation arrangement, the government would implement policies that deviate from the President's agenda.
France's Fifth Republic has witnessed three cohabitations since its inception. The most recent instance occurred between 1997 and 2002 when conservative President Jacques Chirac cohabited with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.
The Prime Minister is accountable to Parliament, leads the government, and introduces legislation. During cohabitation, the President's domestic authority diminishes but retains certain powers in foreign policy, European affairs, defense, and the negotiation and ratification of international treaties. Additionally, the President serves as the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces and controls the nuclear arsenal.
Hung Parliament: Challenges and Implications
A hung parliament, while relatively common in other European countries, would be unprecedented in modern French history. In such a scenario, lawmakers would need to build consensus across party lines to reach agreements on government positions and legislation.
Given France's fragmented political landscape and deep divisions regarding issues like taxation, immigration, and Middle Eastern policy, forging such consensus would be particularly challenging.
A hung parliament would likely derail Macron's plans for overhauling unemployment benefits or legalizing assisted dying for the terminally ill, among other proposed reforms. Passing the budget could also become more arduous.
Rise of the Far Right
France, despite being one of the world's leading economies and a significant diplomatic and military power, faces challenges such as inflation, low incomes, and a sense of marginalization among many voters. Le Pen's party, which attributes many of these issues to immigration, has capitalized on this voter discontent, building a strong online presence and grassroots network, particularly in small towns and rural areas that perceive the political elite in Paris as disconnected from their concerns.
Significance of the Election
The National Assembly is the more powerful of France's two parliamentary chambers, having the final say in the law-making process over the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives.
Macron's presidential term extends until 2027, and he has stated that he intends to complete his term. However, a weakened French presidency could complicate global affairs.
In previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policy were generally considered the President's domain, who could usually negotiate compromises with the Prime Minister to ensure France presented a unified voice on the international stage.
However, the far-right National Rally and the left-wing coalition hold substantially different views on these matters compared to Macron's approach, potentially leading to tensions during a potential cohabitation.
Bardella has indicated that as Prime Minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine, an option that Macron has not ruled out. Additionally, Bardella has stated that he would reject French поставки of long-range missiles and other weaponry capable of striking targets within Russia itself.
