Delhi Exit Poll Reveals Nuanced Voter Behavior
The alleged assault on AAP MP Swati Maliwal by Bibhav Kumar, a close aide to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, had created a political storm in Delhi ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP seized the opportunity and attempted to portray the INDIA bloc, which includes AAP, as anti-women. However, the India Today My Axis India exit poll for Delhi paints a more complex picture of voter behavior, particularly among women.
Women Voters Show Shifting Allegiances
The exit poll data indicates that the INDIA bloc, comprising AAP and Congress, has improved its performance in most parts of Delhi compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Despite the Maliwal controversy, the BJP's female voter base is projected to decline by 4% from the previous election, dropping to 50%. In contrast, the AAP-Congress alliance is expected to gain ground among female voters, securing around 47% of the female vote share, a 4% increase from 2019. While the BJP still maintains a narrow lead among women voters, the margin has narrowed, suggesting that the Maliwal saga may have evoked sympathy for the opposition rather than benefiting the BJP.
AAP's welfare policies, such as free bus travel and the promise of a monthly stipend of Rs 1,000, appear to have resonated with female voters. However, the survey shows a significant gap in male voter support, with 58% backing the BJP compared to only 41% supporting the INDIA bloc, indicating a gender divide in voting preferences.
Caste Dynamics Shape Voting Patterns
The India Today My Axis India exit poll also reveals distinct voting patterns based on caste affiliations. Dalits overwhelmingly support the INDIA bloc, with an estimated 53% vote share, while the BJP is projected to garner 45% of Dalit votes, a 3% loss compared to 2019. This loss seems to be balanced by gains in the OBC and general categories.
The BJP is expected to enjoy a significant lead among OBC voters, with 66% support compared to 33% for the INDIA bloc. In the general category, BJP commands 68% support, while the INDIA bloc trails with 31%. The exit poll also suggests a strong preference for the AAP-Congress alliance among Muslim voters, with 89% support for the alliance and a mere 7% of the community expected to vote for the BJP.
Economic Factors and Voting Choices
Unemployment emerged as a significant concern during the Lok Sabha campaign in Delhi. However, the exit poll figures indicate that the BJP retains an advantage even among the unemployed. According to the survey, 56% of the unemployed population is likely to vote for the BJP, compared to 42% favoring the INDIA bloc.
The BJP is also expected to receive votes from workers (52%), farmers (57%), and skilled laborers (60%). Among farmers and skilled laborers, the AAP-Congress alliance is expected to secure roughly 38% and 39% of votes, respectively.
