BJP's Electoral Prospects Surge in Odisha, Challenging BJD's Dominance
As per the latest India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to make significant gains in the upcoming Odisha Assembly elections, threatening the incumbent Biju Janata Dal (BJD)'s long-standing dominance.
BJD Faces Uphill Battle
Led by Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, the BJD has been the dominant force in Odisha politics for over two decades. However, the exit poll predicts a significant decline in the party's fortunes, with projections of winning between 62 and 80 seats in the 147-seat Assembly. This result, if it materializes, would shatter the BJD's hopes of securing a sixth consecutive term in office.
BJP Aims at Majority
The BJP, meanwhile, has its sights set on seizing power in Odisha for the first time. The exit poll estimates that the party could bag anywhere from 62 to 80 seats, putting it within striking distance of a majority. Such an outcome would mark a dramatic shift in Odisha's political landscape.
Hung Assembly a Possibility
In the worst-case scenario for the BJD, the exit poll suggests that Odisha could end up with a hung Assembly, where no single party commands a clear majority. This would pave the way for complex post-election negotiations and potential alliances.
Exit Poll Methodology and Cautions
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll is based on a massive survey of 5.8 lakh voters conducted across all 543 parliamentary constituencies. However, it's crucial to note that exit polls can sometimes be inaccurate, as they rely on respondents' self-reported voting intentions and do not account for factors such as last-minute swings or voter turnout.
Shifting Electoral Dynamics
The exit poll data reflects a shift in electoral dynamics in Odisha. The BJP's vote share is projected to jump to 42%, while the BJD's share is expected to dip to the same level. Congress, the third major party in the state, is predicted to garner 12% of the votes and win between five and eight seats.
Multi-Phase Elections
Odisha's Assembly elections were held in four phases, with voting taking place on May 13, May 20, May 25, and June 1. The Assembly polls were held concurrently with the Lok Sabha elections in the state.
BJP's Lok Sabha Prospects
In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP is also predicted to emerge as the dominant force in Odisha, according to the exit poll. The party is projected to win between 18 and 20 seats, while the BJD is likely to secure only one or two seats.
Bitter Campaign
The political atmosphere in Odisha has been highly charged, with the BJP and the BJD, former allies, engaging in bitter exchanges. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP have focused their attacks on Naveen Patnaik's age, his aide's non-Odia origins, and issues of Odia pride. The BJD, on the other hand, has emphasized its welfare programs and schemes.
